Flu Pandemic

With the news that Labour's candidate in the Norwich North by-election may be suffering from swine flu http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8161065.stm it is important to consider where things are now with this serious illness and where they are likely to go. Several weeks ago I attended a meeting with a senior NHS official for London about a number of health issues in the capital. One of the questions I asked was why the Flu Line was not up and running. He came out with some sort of half hearted response but basically it was put down to it taking time to put things in place. Well, the NHS has had since April to sort this out and has had a flu pandemic plan in place for several years. I attended a meeting with the main flu planning group from the NHS over two years ago. The real reason for the delay it appears is infighting in the NHS and between various departments.

In my role as Vice Chair of the Patients Forum Ambulance Services (London) I am meeting with Dr Tanner, the Regional Director of Health for London, on the 28th of this month to discuss progress on this issue. The advice also keeps altering. First it was only pregnant mothers who were to avoid crowds, now it is also people with compromised immune systems. If we observe what is happenign in the Southern Hemisphere, where the flu season is already in full swing, it is clear that Argentina and Chile in particular have been very affected. Restaurants and theatres in Argentina have closed down and there has been a real dip in the economy. My concern is that economic motives are driving the health agenda here and that crucial public health advice is not being issued because of concerns about its economic impact.

I have long had an interest in this subject as my great grandfather and granduncle both died in the pandemic of 1918 within 48 hours of catching the virus, leaving my grandfather as the sole survivor. It is interesting that the lessons of that pandemic are only now being taken on board by the authorities. People knew a lot less then about the virus but one of the main pieces of public health advice then was not to go to crowded places. Now it appears that similar advice is being issued today http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jul/21/swine-flu-pregnant-women-advice

In 1918 the second wave of the flu in the autumn was the most serious and the indications are that this will be the case again. I would strongly urge the health authorities to follow the advice of the more farsighted of their predecessors and cancel all large scale public events at the height of the pandemic - football matches, theatres, all large scale gatherings. We do not fully understand yet how severe the flu will be in the autumn but preventitive measures should be taken. Better safe than sorry.