Friday, 17 February 2012

Iran will not start the war

A report from US intelligence confirms that any war with the US will not be started by Iran. We are now moving into a very dangerous period with many analysts predicting a war with Iran, probably started by Israel, by the summer. I have just written an article about this for the Green Left magazine 'The Watermelon'. The gear up for war has started. My article is below:

Marching to the drums of war – again!

Weapons of mass destruction (nuclear) only five minutes to midnight, if we don’t attack soon it will be too late, a mad dictator – does it sound familiar? Yes, that is because it is. Change Iran for Iraq and it is almost a carbon copy of the lead up to  the Iraq war. All the signs are there that war is imminent. And this time Israel will take a leading role. Israel is champing at the bit to attack Iran – probably by means of heavy bombing – and the safe money is on an attack by the summer. As even Michael Portillo pointed out recently, the attack is likely to be launched before the US election in November, as the Zionist lobby in the US will ensure that calls for war drown out any other voices. Already Republican candidates are stating that Iran is the number one foreign policy issue. Indeed, the January issue of a leading  US foreign policy magazine contained an article with the title “Why we must attack Iran now.”

The warships are already in the Straits of Hormuz and the military planners, both in the US and Israel are already at work, with the UK bringing up the rear. Articles abound in the press about how the Iranians might attack US warships in the Gulf, and the impact on the world’s oil supplies, 20% of which flow through the Straits of Hormuz.

What shape will this war take? It will be quite different from Iraq and will be predominantly an air war. However, it will spark a regional war as there can be no doubt that Iran will retaliate against any attack, with missile strikes against both Israel and the US allies in the Gulf. Europe could also be dragged in, with the Star Wars missile defence bases in Romania and elsewhere. The EU is already supporting sanctions against Iran, led by the US, which like Iraq before, are having an effect on the civilian population, with food supplies etc affected. Iran’s allies in the region will also retaliate, spreading the war to Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq. Some US intelligence analysts believe it could trigger World War III.

The anti-war movement must do everything possible to prevent another disastrous war happening in the region, which will not only take huge amounts of resources but lead to the deaths of thousands. This could be the spark, which like Sarajevo 100 years ago, ignites a world war.

Dr Joseph Healy

Former member of Stop the War Coalition Steering Committee

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