Wars and rumours of wars

I have been very interested for a long time in the development of the US missile defence system in Central Europe and the expansion of NATO. My background is as a historian of Russia and Eastern Europe and I am very concerned about the increasing anti-Russian position of NATO and the US. This came to a peak during the Bush presidency with the decision to site early warning radar and missile interceptor bases in the Czech Republic and Poland. I wrote last year, while International Coordinator of the Green Party to the Czech Greens, who are in the coalition government there, asking them not to support the siting of the bases in any way, in accordance with an emergency motion which I succeeded in getting the party conference to adopt unanimously. Also as the party's delegate to Stop the War Coalition, we have been kept up to date with developments in the East and there will be a huge demonstration in Strasbourg on April 4th, at the NATO conference to celebrate its 60th anniversary, which will be attended by President Obama.

On Saturday I went along to an all day conference on this issue, with speakers from the Czech Republic and Poland. I should say that there has been a large grassroots peace movement in the Czech Republic and opinion polls demonstrate that the vast majority of Czechs are opposed to the bases. The bases are supposed to protect the US from incoming Iranian missiles but understandably Russia is deeply concerned that they will be threatened as the bases are near their territory.

The good news, as outlined at the conference, is that Russia has offered an olive branch and has backed down from stationing its missile in Kaliningrad on the Baltic - only about 200 miles from Berlin. They are waiting to see what the response of the new US administration will be, and so is the European peace movement.

The first speaker, Michael Connarty, a Labour MP from Scotland, stated quite clearly that the US strategy was to force Russia into a situation where it would have to spend huge amounts of money on defence, this was the strategy which had led to the fall of the Soviet Union, because the Soviet economy was unable to stand the strain. He made the interesting point that some of the new EU states such as Poland, saw themselves as very linked to the US rather than Europe, and wanted US economic investment etc. He also said that new relations with Russia needed to begin and this could be assisted by reopening a Partnership Agreement. But there were also dangers from Russia and these had been spelt out in Medvedev's recent five basic principles of foreign policy. One of these was "the right to special attention in areas where Russia has interests". This is a return to the traditional sphere of influence theory and suggests that Russia wants to maintain control of the former Soviet states at least.

Ivona Novametska from the Czech Republic works for the Social Democrats, who are opposed to the bases, but is also a member of the independent peace movement. She was very frank in her speech and admitted that some of the Social Democrats had started the negotiations while still in government but had been forced to alter their position by public opinion. She also revealed that there was a real danger that the treaty to establish the bases (agreed last July by the US and Czech Republic) could be ratified in the Czech parliament soon by corrupt Social Democrats who were not standing in the next election and could be open to bribery. I think she was quite brave to say this and could be in some trouble on her return to Prague. She also revealed that the US/Czech treaty was signed on the same table where the Soviets and hardline Communists had agreed to the intervention of Soviet troops against the Prague Spring in 1968, which is a terrible irony. The peace movement has formed a League of Mayors from the leaders of many of the small villages and is bringing them by bus to address the European Parliament on February 18th. She asked if the leaders of the 1989 'Velvet Revolution' could ever have considered that 20 years later, Czech politicians would agree to another foreign occupation. The answer to this came later in the conference and was very surprising. It was also the case that the US National Missile Defence Agency was sending lobbyists and generals to Prague to wine and dine Czech politicians, as well as probably paying them, to line up their support for the deal.

A speaker from the Polish peace movement said that there was an increasing awareness in Poland of the need for a new relationship with Russia and the need to overcome traditional 'Russophobia'. Germany understood that Russia must play a large role in European defence. Russia had offered to take part in a new Eurasian defence system with the US and NATO. In Poland 47% of the population were opposed to the bases but Polish conservative politicians were outdoing each other to support the US. It was clear that Poland would have to buy US equipment in order to maintain the system and the base would be run by US troops. He mocked the only concession granted to the Poles by the US - a patriot missile battery which would be under US command.

Another speaker from the Czech Republic (Jana Glivicka) representing the No to Bases movement, told how ex-President Havel had attacked the peace movement and denounced their demonstrations, asking did they want to hand over the country to the Russians. I found this very depressing from someone who was a dissident and a campaigner for peace during the communist period. The movement is calling for a national referendum, which they would surely win, but the government is refusing. They have won a whole series of local referenda with votes of 95% to 98% opposed to the bases. The movement consists of many older people who feel that the Czech Republic should never be occupied again and remember the years of Soviet occupation, but there are also many young people, including ecologists and anti-globalisation campaigners. Many of these people were not only concerned with the bases but about Europe's role in the arms trade, international development and the combating of poverty, along with issues such as the Palestinians and Gaza. Jana agreed to come and speak at a fringe meeting which Green Left is organising at the Green Party conference in March but also gave me some very confidential information concerning Czech political developments, which I swore not to reveal. However, news about this should come from Prague soon.

Our own Green MEP for London, Jean Lambert, also spoke and described the lunatic missile defence system as "an idea in search of a reason". This is because its defenders keep moving the goalposts about what it is intended to do and who it is aimed at. Her view was that there was an enormous risk of alienating Russia long term, and this is a fear which I very much share. She argued for an international defence agreement and not just treaties to suit the needs of individual countries, in this case Poland and the Czech Republic. There was a danger that if Poland or the Czech Republic refused the bases, then NATO and the US would look elsewhere. One obvious spot in my view is Georgia. Jean also revealed that shortly after the Czech Republic signed the treaty with the US, the country was offered a visa waiver programme, which granted its citizens priveliged rights to enter the US. This was clearly part of the quid pro quo. It was vital said Jean that the meeting of the European Defence Ministers in Prague , the NATO conference in Strasbourg on April4th and the non-proliferation conferences in 2010 were all targeted by the peace movement. Jana also agreed with this and called on the European peace movement to come to the NATO conference to protest.

Reference was made, of course, to the UK being the other part of this whole jigsaw puzzle, and an MP from the German party, Die Linke, who turned out to be a former Green MP, made the point very strongly that France and the UK were both modernising their nuclear arsenals. This at a time when there is mass unemployment and the NHS, education and the welfare system are all being starved of funds. She blamed European governments for not pushing Obama on the issue but adopting a policy of 'wait and see' instead.

For all of the speakers the position of the new US government was seen as essential. But many made the point that Obama is still surrounded by many from the military industrial complex such as Gates, the Defence Secretary.

Two of the Green MPs in the Czech parliament are voting with the opposition and opposing the bases and the Young Czech Greens are also. It is about time that the leadership of the Czech Greens assumed the position which most of their voters want them to take. Ilona made the point that many Czech observers did not believe that the Greens would have seats in the next parliament if they did alter course on this issue.

I am absolutely committed to supporting the peace movement in both countries and to stoping what many at the conference referred to as "a new cold war in Europe". Many activists from the UK are going to Strasbourg and I will be going also. There will be an alternative forum to the NATO conference, a peace camp and finally a large demonstration with people from all across the continent taking part. These young people in the peace movement in Central Europe are providing our continent with a moral compass and trying to save Europe from a possible major conflict, with either Iran or Russia, which could happen because of mendacious politicians with no vision. Europe has seen enough wars in the 20th century. Now with all the other global problems which confront us - economic, resource wise and cliamatic, the last thing we need is a return to the dark days of the cold war - or even worse an accidental nuclear conflagration.

More details of the Strasbourg actions here http://stopwar.org.uk/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=785&Itemid=27

And the Czech No Bases site here: http://www.nezakladnam.cz/en/293_homepage

Ivona also told me that Czech filmakers were accompanying her yesterday (Sunday) to visit the early warning sites at Fylingdales in Yorkshire, where protests are ongoing. The film entitled 'Czech Peace' will be shown on Czech television soon. As Ilona said: " When we go there we see what is in store for us. This will give the Czech people even more cause to fight against this invasion of our country."