Caroline Lucas, Green Party leader, only candidate able to keep the Conservatives out in Brighton Pavilion constituency
- UK’s first Green MP now a serious prospect - ICM constituency poll
Greens take a 10 point lead over Labour and an 8 point lead over the Conservatives in their target constituency of Brighton Pavilion - ICM Research telephone opinion poll.
Headline results
1. The Greens have the greatest support with 35% of the constituency’s voters followed by the Conservatives on 27%, Labour on 25% and LibDems on 11%.1
2. Almost two thirds (63%) of Labour and Lib Dem voters in the sample said that they would be likely to switch their vote to the Greens if that party was best placed to stop a Conservative win. 37% said they were very likely and 26% said they were quite likely to switch their vote in that situation.2
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Green candidate Caroline Lucas has a significant lead over the other parties’ candidates in Brighton Pavilion constituency, according to the first publicly released standard-size constituency opinion poll of local voters.
If repeated at the general election with a similar turn out, the result would see the Greens winning their first parliamentary seat, taking the constituency from Labour with a majority of almost 3,500 over the Conservatives.3
The telephone poll of 533 voters adjusted to match the local electorate’s profile and undertaken by ICM Research’s Government and Social Unit between 16 – 21 December 2009, suggests the Greens enjoy a 10 point lead over Labour and an 8 point lead over the Conservatives in the constituency.1
Paul Steedman, National General Election Campaign Director for the Green Party, said, “Besides pointing to the prospect of electing the country’s first Green Party MP, this opinion poll supports what we have been hearing from voters when we’ve talked to them on the door steps.
“We only need a 7% swing from Labour to Greens to win the seat. This opinion poll suggests we are on target to achieve this.
“It gives tactical voters a clear message - only a vote for the Green Party can stop the Conservatives in Brighton Pavilion.
“The ICM poll shows that Labour are trailing in third place – behind the Greens by 10 points and the Conservatives by 2 points. The Tories are still behind the Greens by 8 points.
“Remember, this was a Labour seat in 2005. The significant shift demonstrates that where voters have the chance to see Greens in action, where they get elected and as local councillors and work hard for residents, as we do here in Brighton or in other parts of the country such as Lewisham and Norwich, they like what they get.
“The poll also suggests that almost two thirds of Labour and Lib Dem voters would be likely to back the Greens if we were in a position to stop a Tory win in this constituency. This isn’t surprising news to us either – we know the voters of Brighton to be as savvy as you’ll find anywhere in the country.
“Caroline has already shown her dedication to the people of Brighton as their representative in the European Parliament for over ten years. She will bring all her experience to stand up for them in Westminster.”
Candidate Caroline Lucas said, “Brighton is a special place and its voters are impatient for a fresh, independent voice to represent them in Westminster. I believe I am offering them that.
“Taken with the other indicators such as the bookies making the Greens favourites, this poll should help to reassure wavering Labour and Lib Dem supporters that a Green vote in Brighton Pavilion is the best way to stop the Tories.
“If elected, I promise to honour the trust that voters have placed in me and provide Brighton with the fresh, independent voice its people want and deserve.”
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